Tropical Weather Outlook 9-5-23

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located 
about midway between western Africa and the Windward Islands has 
become better organized overnight.  If current trends continue, 
advisories would be issued later today on a tropical cyclone moving 
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical 
Atlantic.  Additional strengthening to a hurricane is likely later 
this week while the system moves over western portions of the 
tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands.  For additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A strong tropical wave is near the coast of West Africa, producing 
a large area of cloudiness and showers.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the middle 
to latter part of the week while the system moves west-northwest 
at 10 to 15 mph.  This system is expected to move across the Cabo 
Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and interests there 
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located a few hundred miles 
north of the Azores, and is forecast to move quickly southeastward 
towards warmer waters east of the Azores.  This system could acquire 
some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week or 
this weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and 
Portugal. For additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header 
FQNT50 LFPW and online at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

Forecaster Blake/Stevenson

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