Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of
the Turks and Caicos Islands.
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
near the northeastern coast of Honduras is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located about 950 miles east of Bermuda
(the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge with a
frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in the next day or
so. For additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
3. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
could become more conducive for development in a few days, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Bucci
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