Tropical Weather Outlook 8-19-23

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental 
conditions appear generally favorable for further development of 
this system, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form 
this weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 
about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next 
week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, 
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited showers 
and thunderstorms to the east of its center. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for 
further development of this system during the next day or two while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east-southeast of 
the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible 
this weekend and during the early and middle parts of next week 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, 
across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central 
Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and 
central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early 
next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form. 
Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches 
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart